Assessing the Elections

How should we interpret yesterday's election results? I consider three issues most important: 1) Do the results constitute a mandate against President Obama? 2) Do the results signify a Republican resurgence on the national level? 3) What do the results suggest about the American people's outlook on the economy?

First, Obama should not be discouraged about the election results. The Democrat incumbents in Virginia and New Jersey lost more so because of their personal incompetence and unpopularity. Jon Corzine would have lost regardless of how much Obama tried to support him. Additionally, most voters cited the economy as the main issue, which is only loosely tied to Obama's performance or their view thereof. I still think a majority of Americans support and believe in Obama achieving some progress.

Second, the Republicans are indeed regaining a national foothold. Their swaying of independents who had aligned with Obama in 2008 showed that the Republican Party still can attract a diverse constituency. Furthermore, their (and the conservatives') victory in the Maine gay marriage law referendum suggests that they can penetrate traditional Democrat strongholds and win the values politics game.

Third, one cannot conclude anything about the American people's outlook on the economy. Statistically, the voters who cited the economy as the most important issue did so out of choice, and the election results are a small sample size. What is undeniable is that the economy will most likely continue to be the primary issue in the 2010 and 2012 general elections. Whichever party can build a strong record and platform on the economy will be at an advantage.