Afghanistan - the fallout begins

This past weekend's leak of classified documents of the war in Afghanistan reveals the many troubles that led to the quagmire that the U.S. faces today. Much of it I blame on lack of planning and understanding. The U.S. entered Afghanistan in a highly uncoordinated and impromptu fashion. Granted, it was right after September 11 and most of the nation was indignant. Nonetheless, Bush sent in American troops and requested allied support without understanding the situation in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance, then opposition to the ruling Taliban, had different motives and means of conducting the war; Osama bin Laden was perhaps the least of their concerns. The U.S. sent in its military without developing a coherent strategy, especially for nation-building and exit, or leveraging its allies properly. Pakistan stands out. Its shocking behavior was not unexpected; after all, the U.S. did not understand Musharraf or what interests Pakistan had in the region. Throughout the whole Bush years, the U.S. treated the war, strategy and allies indifferently and even wantonly.

All is not lost despite the revelation of thousands of pages of classified documents. The war is now Obama's. He cannot blame Bush should his venture in Afghanistan end in failure. Obama indeed can learn much from Bush's failures in Afghanistan. Moreover, this leak pay prove to be a blessing in disguise as policy wonks and experts may help drive national foreign policy in a proper direction. I believe that Obama should learn the two main lessons from Afghanistan that I point to above: develop and continue to develop a coherent strategy, and manage allies, especially the Karzai government, effectively. I believe the former will be less of a problem than the latter: after all, Obama has seriously considered and developed a strategy for Afghanistan, but Karzai will be a thorn for many years to come. Ultimate success in Afghanistan will not depend on how the U.S. armed forces perform. It will depend on how the U.S. unleashes its intelligence and diplomacy skills, above all others.