The Decade of the Puffing Dragon

Will China be the biggest topic in international relations this decade, if not the century? The past month, relations between the U.S. and China have frosted, while bilateral issues have continued to come up. I do not see China's "complicit" role in derailing climate change talks at Copenhagen decisive in causing the setback. Underlying tensions, including questions about China's economic growth and conduct in global affairs, have existed for a while. September 11 might have put them to rest briefly, but new issues, including global warming, the global economic recovery and Iran have surfaced those tensions. The current souring of relations came about not from one conflagration, like the April 2001 plane incident, or traditional sources of disagreement like human rights, but rather from a confluence of developments that shook both groups' trust in the other.

Despite what the Chinese media might have said, Copenhagen was a setback for China. Coming in with high expectations, China failed to effect any concrete results or agreements. Instead, much international criticism, especially from Europe, emerged, which dampened the West's enthusiasm for working with China. Likewise, the Obama administration's recent gestures of support for Taiwan (weapon sales) and Tibet (invitation for the Dalai Lama) underscored the America's flouting of areas of traditional Chinese sovereignty. These setbacks, along with many others, have eroded trust on both sides. Unfortunately, the days of unilateral action in tackling any substantial global problem is over. For China, that means more responsibility and accountability. It must act as a responsible global power and not be stubborn or self-interested on key areas such as global warming and Iran. For the U.S., it means great sensitivity to issues that continue to irk China, especially Taiwan and Tibet. Rebuilding the lost trust will not be easy, but is essential to restoring the most important bilateral relationship in the 2010's.