Sunday 31 October 2010

How much will the Democrats lose?

The Democrats will lose a lot this November 2. The only question is how much. The mood of the nation is difficult to gauge, but an anti-incumbent and anti-government wave is prevalent. The Democrats have much going against them: their incumbency, Obama, the job market, and their "elitism". Even though Obama has embarked on a final tour to boost his party's chances, it will be futile. Many Democrats, in fact, have isolated themselves from Obama so that they could retain their seats. For the GOP, this year is a vital opportunity that they have not had since 1994.

Even so, I cannot predict a clear Republican triumph. The Tea Party is a major liability for them. In the glare of the national media, many Tea Party candidates wilted and raised questions about their suitability for office. Business, which likes predictability, is wary of the Tea Party, as are most independents. The Tea Party may turn out to bite Republicans, and boost Democrat counterparts who only offer one thing to voters: they are not the Tea Party. Furthermore, many incumbent Republicans are up for office in national and state elections, and they too feel so voter ire. The Republicans should not feel so buoyant yet.

Perhaps the election will come down to the oldest calculus, money. Thanks to our ever judicious Supreme Court, whichever side spends the most or has the most corporate benefactors will win. The tasks facing America are great but the politicians who will solve them are petty. What would Ben Franklin really say?

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